In 2020, the first batch of waste paper import license volume significantly reduced, making the paper industry once again into a shortage of raw materials.Some brokers predict that the total volume of foreign waste imports will be reduced by 50% in 2020, and the annual gap will be close to 10 million tons, accounting for 15% of the total demand.The gap is so large, the market for paper price rise expectations strong.Paper - making companies, which used to receive little institutional research, are now being beaten down.
The shortage of raw materials and the low total inventory are the main logic that the paper price will enter a new round of rising cycle.Since January, a number of listed paper enterprises issued a price increase letter, such as chenming paper industry (5.33 + 2.50%, the diagnosis unit), yueyang Lin paper (4.61 + 0.88%, the diagnosis unit) on the culture paper series product price generally increased by 100 yuan/ton, sun paper industry (10.13 + 2.63%, the diagnosis unit) on the ordinary type of offset paper price increase by 100 yuan/ton, the new price implementation period are set on February 1.
Many small and medium-sized paper enterprises have recently reduced the product price.An executive at a listed paper company said: "the Chinese New Year holiday is coming and there is not strong demand from downstream customers for purchases.Small and medium-sized paper mill has also entered the period of downtime, a small profit delivery years ago, is also a common practice in the industry.
However, the executive also cautioned: "don't be fooled by the pre-holiday price cuts."The price system of large paper mills is still very stable, and there may be a new wave of price increases after the Spring Festival when inventories are regulated."
As the executive said, the recent paper enterprises gradually into the outage period, the earliest even in the New Year's day shutdown.In addition, many paper enterprises due to the transformation of the high-voltage power grid, heating plans delay, the start time than the original plan to delay.The reporter combed the recent paper enterprises issued the shutdown letter, found that most of the small and medium-sized paper enterprises in January 10 before or after the order, and 15 days after the shutdown period, the shutdown cycle of about 20 days.
The downtime of large paper enterprises is relatively late, such as shanying paper industry (3.65-0.27%, the medical unit) five bases in anhui, zhejiang, fujian, guangdong, central China a total of 15 paper machines will start to shut down from January 20, the duration of 4 days to 20 days, is expected to reduce the box board and corrugated paper production capacity of about 100,000 tons.
While many listed paper companies are pleased with the recovery of the industry, their share prices are still facing the situation of breaking the net, attracted the attention of institutional investors.
According to the reporter's statistics, in the a-share papermaking sector, the share prices of paper enterprises such as chenming paper industry, huatai stock (4.85 + 4.53%, diagnostic shares), jingxing paper industry (3.48 + 3.88%, diagnostic shares), qifeng new material (6.33 + 0.96%, diagnostic shares) and yueyang forest paper are in A state of breaking net.The price-to-book ratios of hengfeng paper (7.95 + 0.38%, diagnostic unit), shanying paper, qingshan paper (2.13 + 0.00%, diagnostic unit) and minfeng paper (5.44 + 2.45%, diagnostic unit) are less than 1.5.Even the bohui paper industry (6.97 + 8.40%, clinical shares), which has been repeatedly raised by industrial capital, only has a price-to-book ratio of 1.63.
The lowest price-to-book ratio is huatai at 0.68.The company is the country's largest newsprint production base, market share of more than 30%.The company is also the paper enterprise with the highest proportion of the first batch of foreign waste quota in 2020, which has the advantage of low cost operation.
Recently, institutional research on listed paper enterprises is increasing.For example, since December 2019, 14 institutions have visited jingxing paper for research.In the summary of the investigation, the company said that American waste has certain properties of wood pulp, which is the guarantee of the quality of waste paper products. If the supply is insufficient, the company needs to use wood pulp with higher cost to replace, and the company has made the plan of not having any import quota of waste paper in 2021.In 2020, the company expects to have about 100,000 tons of waste paper import quota.Moreover, the company has signed the agreement of about 380,000 tons of recycled pulp, which is enough to ensure the normal production of the company.
Jingxing paper also revealed that the company has built a pulp and paper base in Malaysia, with a capacity of 800,000 tons of waste pulp and 600,000 tons of packaging raw paper, which has been approved by the eia outline and is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2021.After the production of America waste recycled pulp line, the high-quality recycled pulp is enough to supply the company for production, so that the company has the advantage of raw materials.
